The attack on Uri in which sixteen of our soldiers were martyred saddened me. The use of non-state actors to a wage a proxy war should be deplored at all levels. What surprised me most was the reaction of some of the political parties and commentators. Rather than supporting, they blamed the army and the government. You may call me naive but I am of the view that at such times it is important to show a united face to the world community. It is imperative to make Pakistan understand that at any times of crisis, we are nation with one opinion. This is not the time to indulge in politics.
Pakistan’s modus operandi is very simple. It goes for a limited attack against India through non-state actors/terrorists. I remember Pakistan supporting the hijacking of an Indian Airlines commercial flight IC-814, Pakistani militants attacking our Parliament house and the 26/11 attack in Mumbai. Pakistan’s strategy is to rely on big global powers to restrain India after each provocation. It knows that given the nuclear capabilities of the two nations involved, the US, the UK, Russia, and China among many other nations would put pressure on India to show restrain. To show that Pakistan is acting against these non-state actors, it officially bans some of these terrorist organizations, such as JAMAT UL DAWA, but in reality allow them to function without any hindrance. And when the temperature cools down, it even removes the official ban saying the evidence against these organizations were inadequate. The cycle repeats itself. If India needs to move forward on the issue of Kashmir, it needs to break the cycle.
Breaking the cycle is easier said than done. There is a lot of confusion: partly because what we want and what we are willing to do to achieve what we want are not that clear. One thing that is clear is that we, Indians, do not like the current status of Kashmir. So, when I hear that the Modi government is working with a new doctrine (“Modi-Doval Doctrine”), it gives me some hope. This is a recognition that the our current approach is not working. The current government which came into power with a decisive mandate has full right to to tinker and change the policy prescription. And if the policy fails, the political parties and others have all the rights to criticize the government. But to begin with, the government deserves our full support. Criticism at this point looks rather petty and dysfunctional.
At the current time, we do not have any white paper or official statement on the government’s policy. All discussions on this topic point to Mr. Doval’s 2010 lecture. Rather than relying on the lecture alone, let us see what the government has done so far. Mr. Narendra Modi became the first prime minister to talk about Baluchistan, Gigit and Baltistan. It is common sense to express your maximal position in a dispute. It gives you more bargaining space. Unfortunately, India never mentioned Baluchistan, Gigit and Baltistan earlier. Prime minister Modi certainly took the right step and gave clear indication to Pakistan that India would bring these regions also in the discussion.
Some elements in the government have talked about stopping the provision of several amenities to Hurriyat leaders. I hope that this step is a well thought out part of the doctrine. What the government need is to distinguish between the Kashmiri populace and the elites who are leading the unrest. India should focus on punishing these elites while ignoring the wrongdoing of the general Kashmiri youth. What typically happens is the opposite: to control the situation, the Indian state ends up inflicting pain to the general populace while mollycoddling the leaders of these unrests.
Unfortunately there are no details of the Modi-Doval doctrine in the public domain. At this stage, I can only hope that the doctrine contains strategies to break the cycle of Pakistan’s misadventures. Pakistan has been playing this game for a long time and is used to getting away with it. Now, it is time for India to demonstrate that it would not take things lying down. Pakistan begins the cycle by inflicting pain on India and relies on the western world to rein in India from giving a befitting reply to Pakistan. India needs to change the game. One option is to surgically strike some of the terror camps located in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). It is important that India begins with only those camps located in PoK and not the ones located in Pakistan. The distinction is important because of two reasons: first,India considers PoK as its integral part, and has all rights to take action in its own territory; second, as Pakistan considers PoK as an independent territory (only in name and not in action). A surgical strike will give clear indication to the world and Pakistan of the Indian intention. As earlier, the world leaders would like to de-escalate the tension and would put pressure on Pakistan not to retaliate. A strike in Pakistan would become difficult to manage diplomatically.
