What’s Next: Beyond the Breaking of Cycle of Terror

In my last blog  (randomthoughtsbyvk.blogspot.com/2016/09/cycle-of-terror-attack-on-uri-in-which.html), I advocated the need to  carry out a surgical strike on terrorist camps located in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). One week later, the Indian Army did just that. I must congratulate Indian political leadership and the military.  Now, the question is: what’s next?

The first thing that we need to understand is who the enemy is. Indians living in the Kashmir valley and Pakistani citizens (even if they have an adverse opinion of India and Indian actions ) are not the enemy. The enemy is the Pakistani establishment: its government, army, ISI and terrorists. The Indian establishment should target these base and evil elements and try (as much as possible) to avoid causing any harm to  the innocent Kashmiris and Pakistanis. Like us, they are mere victims. And also, it is in our long-term interest to protect the civilian population. People from Kashmir ( J&K and PoK) should see their future in India and not in Pakistan. 

The aim should not be to destabilize Pakistan or to escalate the tension, but to make sure that the Pakistani establishment understands that they would have to pay a proportional price for any misadventure against India. Over a period, Pakistan started believing that India doesn’t have the political will to retaliate. By going in for a surgical strike, India has made it clear to Pakistan, and more importantly to the world, that it is not going to tolerate any such unprovoked attacks on Indian soil. 

This episode is not yet over. The ball is in the Pakistan’s court.  There are  three main possibilities:  

1.    Terrorist Attack/s in Indian Cities: The Pakistani establishment treats terrorism as one of its state strategies. It is most likely that they would try to do something along the line of the Mumbai Attack, the Parliament Attack, or the Pathankot Attack, or even a Plane highjack. The Indian establishment should be in a state of alert. Thwarting such attempts are very important. What is also important is that the Indian government should be ready to give a fitting (measured and proportional )  response by attacking  terror camps and training grounds of the terrorists who dare to participate in such misadventures. 

Time has also come to have a federal/central police force to tackle these terrorist attacks. I         understand that law and order is a state matter. However, the time is ripe for states and the         center to come together in the national interest and give birth to such a force. Cooperation on GST clearly demonstrates that if there is a need they can come together. We should not overburden the army with internal security.

2.    Fanning the separatist movement in Kashmir:  Pakistan may try more mischief in the Valley. The key to our response should be that we differentiate between  common citizens living in the Valley and political leaders hobnobbing with the ISI and the Pakistani Army. We should figure out ways to help our fellow citizens in Kashmir and punish these errant political leaders. Completing the Kashmir Railway quickly would be a step in the right direction. Including more and more Kashmiri youths stakeholders in Kashmir’s tourism Industry will also help.

3.    Retaliation along the LOC: This is the third possibility. The military should be prepared to give a fitting response (measured and proportional) to any Pakistani misadventure. The Indian establishment has asked the villagers living in the border areas to move out. These villagers need governmental support. The government should make all efforts to provide them transportation, food, abode and jobs. 

On the diplomatic front, our diplomats were very successful in isolating Pakistan. Not a single government (including China) said anything negative about these strikes. Our diplomats must have worked very hard  to achieve this.  They deserve to be congratulated. Their job, however, has not ended. They should continue to work with/on the western, south Asian countries and China towards making  Pakistan understand the pitfalls of using terrorism as a state strategy. The most important is to convince China that supporting terrorism is not going to help anyone in the world. China is strategically tied to Pakistan, and it sees Pakistan as a counterweight to India’s growing influence. However, in this highly connected world no-one is a permanent enemy or a permanent friend. Moreover, China has also seen the effect of extremism in one of its states “the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region”. The task ahead for our diplomat is making the Dragon see red in any form of terrorism. 

I should also mention that this terrorist strike has made the job of the central government more difficult. Their responsibility is to teach the Pakistani establishment a lesson without escalating  the tension. The speech given by the prime minister in Kozhikode was in the right direction. We should not forget that our main fight is against poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and  corruption. The government has to tackle these issues along with the menace caused by elements across the border.